Bubbles, Human Judgment, and Expert Opinion
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Research Workshop on Expert Judgment, Human Error, and Intelligent Systems
should we model error processes? What are the most promising routes to error detection and mitigation? What should be the role of knowledge-based systems? The workshop brought together 20 participants from 8 European countries and the United States in the fields of psychology, judgment, and decision making, human-computer interaction (HCI), and AI to discuss the issues based on their own resear...
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Experts are often used to provide uncertainty distributions in risk analyses. They play an importantrole when insufficient data exist for quantification, or when the available data or models are conflicting. Multiplesteps are required in constructing a successful expert judgment process. These steps include selecting andframing the issues, identifying the experts, deciding upon an o...
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Expertise m what is it? Expertise is the ability of one human within an organization to outperform a similarly educated and informed peer group in discrete, repetitive tasks involving decision-making and risk assessment. Expertise is best measured by the degree to which an individual’s performance provides proprietary advantage to his organization. Bright people with exceptional ways of accompl...
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The variousmechanisms that represent the know-howof decision-makers are exposed to a common weakness, namely, a lack of consistency. To overcome this weakness within AHP (analytic hierarchy process), we propose a framework that enables balancing consistency and expert judgment. We specifically focus on a linearization process for streamlining the trade-off between expert reliability and synthet...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Financial Analysts Journal
سال: 2002
ISSN: 0015-198X,1938-3312
DOI: 10.2469/faj.v58.n3.2535